Factual · Powerful · Original · Iconoclastic
To a grand media reception, the President's Council of Advisers on Science and Technology issued a paper giving as a "plausible scenario" 30,000 - 90,000 U.S. swine flu deaths, with a peak before Americans would have a chance to get vaccine immunity.
It's pork baloney, as I write in today's Philadelphia Inquirer.
Although this shortened version of my original piece no longer contains it, the CDC has refused to support that figure. For good reason.
The report is based on three layer of cards. If anyone one doesn't hold, everything comes tumbling down. None hold against scientific evidence. The layers:
CONCLUSION: The evidence is that the U.S. will have NO excess flu deaths this year and it's entirely possible we'll have fewer deaths than in a typical season. Why? Because swine flu seems to displace seasonal flu and it's milder. With a similar case number and lower mortality, we have fewer overall deaths.